Simon Willison’s Weblog

On DeepSeek and Export Controls. Anthropic CEO (and previously GPT-2/GPT-3 development lead at OpenAI) Dario Amodei's essay about DeepSeek includes a lot of interesting background on the last few years of AI development.

Dario was one of the authors on the original scaling laws paper back in 2020, and he talks at length about updated ideas around scaling up training:

The field is constantly coming up with ideas, large and small, that make things more effective or efficient: it could be an improvement to the architecture of the model (a tweak to the basic Transformer architecture that all of today's models use) or simply a way of running the model more efficiently on the underlying hardware. New generations of hardware also have the same effect. What this typically does is shift the curve: if the innovation is a 2x "compute multiplier" (CM), then it allows you to get 40% on a coding task for $5M instead of $10M; or 60% for $50M instead of $100M, etc.

He argues that DeepSeek v3, while impressive, represented an expected evolution of models based on current scaling laws.

[...] even if you take DeepSeek's training cost at face value, they are on-trend at best and probably not even that. For example this is less steep than the original GPT-4 to Claude 3.5 Sonnet inference price differential (10x), and 3.5 Sonnet is a better model than GPT-4. All of this is to say that DeepSeek-V3 is not a unique breakthrough or something that fundamentally changes the economics of LLM's; it's an expected point on an ongoing cost reduction curve. What's different this time is that the company that was first to demonstrate the expected cost reductions was Chinese.

Dario includes details about Claude 3.5 Sonnet that I've not seen shared anywhere before:

• Claude 3.5 Sonnet cost "a few $10M's to train"
• 3.5 Sonnet "was not trained in any way that involved a larger or more expensive model (contrary to some rumors)" - I've seen those rumors, they involved Sonnet being a distilled version of a larger, unreleased 3.5 Opus.
• Sonnet's training was conducted "9-12 months ago" - that would be roughly between January and April 2024. If you ask Sonnet about its training cut-off it tells you "April 2024" - that's surprising, because presumably the cut-off should be at the start of that training period?

The general message here is that the advances in DeepSeek v3 fit the general trend of how we would expect modern models to improve, including that notable drop in training price.

Dario is less impressed by DeepSeek R1, calling it "much less interesting from an innovation or engineering perspective than V3". I enjoyed this footnote:

I suspect one of the principal reasons R1 gathered so much attention is that it was the first model to show the user the chain-of-thought reasoning that the model exhibits (OpenAI's o1 only shows the final answer). DeepSeek showed that users find this interesting. To be clear this is a user interface choice and is not related to the model itself.

The rest of the piece argues for continued export controls on chips to China, on the basis that if future AI unlocks "extremely rapid advances in science and technology" the US needs to get their first, due to his concerns about "military applications of the technology".

Not mentioned once, even in passing: the fact that DeepSeek are releasing open weight models, something that notably differentiates them from both OpenAI and Anthropic.