4 items tagged “benedict-evans”
2025
Part of the concept of ‘Disruption’ is that important new technologies tend to be bad at the things that matter to the previous generation of technology, but they do something else important instead. Asking if an LLM can do very specific and precise information retrieval might be like asking if an Apple II can match the uptime of a mainframe, or asking if you can build Photoshop inside Netscape. No, they can’t really do that, but that’s not the point and doesn’t mean they’re useless. They do something else, and that ‘something else’ matters more and pulls in all of the investment, innovation and company creation. Maybe, 20 years later, they can do the old thing too - maybe you can run a bank on PCs and build graphics software in a browser, eventually - but that’s not what matters at the beginning. They unlock something else.
What is that ‘something else’ for generative AI, though? How do you think conceptually about places where that error rate is a feature, not a bug?
— Benedict Evans, Are better models better?
2024
Stepping back, though, the very speed with which ChatGPT went from a science project to 100m users might have been a trap (a little as NLP was for Alexa). LLMs look like they work, and they look generalised, and they look like a product - the science of them delivers a chatbot and a chatbot looks like a product. You type something in and you get magic back! But the magic might not be useful, in that form, and it might be wrong. It looks like product, but it isn’t. [...]
LLMs look like better databases, and they look like search, but, as we’ve seen since, they’re ‘wrong’ enough, and the ‘wrong’ is hard enough to manage, that you can’t just give the user a raw prompt and a raw output - you need to build a lot of dedicated product around that, and even then it’s not clear how useful this is.
2023
The paradox of ChatGPT is that it is both a step forward beyond graphical user interfaces, because you can ask for anything, not just what’s been built as a feature with a button, but also a step back, because very quickly you have to memorise a bunch of obscure incantations, much like the command lines that GUIs replaced, and remember your ideas for what you wanted to do and how you did it last week
2019
[On 5G] This is the great thing about the decentralized, permissionless innovation of the internet - telcos don’t need to decide in advance what the use cases are, any more than Intel had to decide what the use cases for faster CPUs would be.